How Gold Gets Decided in Women’s Figure Skating

Apr 4

Why is It So Hard to Win Olympic Gold in Women’s Figure Skating?

Women’s figure skating is one of the most-watched Olympic events—and one of the least predictable. Medals don’t always go to the cleanest skate, the highest-scoring program, or even the reigning World Champion. Sometimes they go to the story.

As someone who trained in the sport and followed it since childhood, I always wondered: if this is about skill, why didn’t Michelle Kwan, a five-time World Champion, ever win Olympic gold? And why did Katarina Witt win it twice?

The question hit harder in 2022, when Alexandra Trusova, fresh off landing five quads, burst into tears and screamed, “I hate this sport!” after winning silver.

So I studied the data. I traced every World and Olympic women’s singles champion from 1980 to today, mapped their scores, and compared their programs.

Timeline of Champions

I created a timeline to identify patterns among all World Championship and Olympic gold winners, but it raised more questions than it answered.

This timeline did reveal that some skaters dominated both the Worlds and Olympics, like Katarina Witt, Kristi Yamaguchi, and Yuna Kim. This offers the appearance of narrative and merit alignment. However, others like Michelle Kwan, Irina Slutskaya, and Evgenia Medvedeva win everything but the Olympic gold medal.

What about their scoring system?

1994 Lillehammer Olympics

Let’s begin with the most emotionally charged Winter Olympics of 1994. It was the battle of the narratives: Oksana’s background as an orphan vs Nancy Kerrigan’s comeback kid after the attack orchestrated by Tanya Harding.

6.0 Scoring System

While both Oksana’s and Nancy’s scores were close, both skated cleanly, but in the end, the judges favored Oksana’s artistic impression over flawless execution.

This was where I started realizing, “artistry is key” because Oksana did look like a natural ballerina. However in my child’s mind, I didn’t know about subjectivity.

* Chen Lu’s scores I couldn’t locate.

1998 Nagano Olympics

A surprise win by Tara Lapinski beating out the favorite Michelle Kwan.

6.0 Scoring System

Tara Lipinski skated clean in both the Short Program and Free Skate, landing seven triple jumps including a triple loop–loop combo. Michelle Kwan led after the Short Program with an elegant performance but two-footed a jump in the Free Skate. Chen Lu fell on a triple toe loop but earned high presentation marks for her artistry and emotional depth.

* Chen Lu’s scores I couldn’t locate.

2002 Salt Lake Olympics

Also known as another surprise win, where Sarah Hughes came from fourth place after her Short Program (SP) to win gold in the end. Everyone expected the gold was going to either Michelle Kwan or Iryna Slutskaya.

6.0 Scoring System

Sarah Hughes was fourth after the SP but delivered a flawless Free Skate with seven triples, earning her the gold. Michelle Kwan led after the SP but fell in the FS, dropping to bronze. Irina Slutskaya skated clean but conservatively, landing silver behind Hughes’ higher technical difficulty.

2006 Turin Olympics (New Scoring System)

Entering an era of new scoring system the International Judging System (IJS). This was introduced after the 2002 Salt Lake City judging scandal in the pairs competition, where biased judging exposed flaws in the old 6.0 system. It breaks scoring into Technical Element Score (TES) for jumps and spins, and Program Component Score (PCS) for artistry and choreography, reducing bias and rewarding both skill and presentation.

New International Judging System (IJS) Scoring

Another surprise win where Shizuka Arakawa beats out the favorites Sasha Cohen and Irina Slutskaya at the 2006 Turin Olympics. Sasha narrowly led the SP, but two major errors in the FS cost her the gold. Shizuka ended up delivering a clean, elegant performance, securing Japan’s first Olympic figure skating title.

2014 Sochi Olympics

The Sochi 2014 women’s final became one of the most debated results in figure skating history, reinforcing concerns about national bias, home-ice advantage, and the subjectivity of the IJS system, which did little improvement.

At the 2014 Sochi Olympics, Adelina Sotnikova (224.59) won gold over Yuna Kim (219.11), despite Kim’s clean, elegant skate. Carolina Kostner took bronze (216.73). Controversy erupted over inflated scores for Sotnikova, questionable judging (including a Russian official with past bias), and accusations of home-ice favoritism, sparking global outrage and a petition with over 2 million signatures.

2022 Beijing Olympics

The era of the women’s quads, and another very controversial Olympics, exposing the pressure put on young Russian athletes, implying harsh training and psychological abuse by their coaches.

The controversy deepened because Kamila Valieva, the favorite, had been allowed to compete despite testing positive for a banned substance weeks earlier. Alexandra Trusova, who landed five quads, earned silver and erupted into that emotional outburst after the results. She shouted, “I hate this sport!” and “Everyone has a gold medal, but not me!”—highlighting her frustration over losing despite attempting the most difficult technical program in Olympic history (I genuinely felt for this athlete). Her frustration stemmed from scoring priorities: quads alone don’t guarantee a win under IJS.

At the 2022 Olympics, Anna Shcherbakova scored a total of 255.95 with a clean, artistically strong program and solid technical elements. Alexandra Trusova scored 251.73, earning the highest Technical Element Score with five quads but lower Program Component Scores due to weaker artistry and execution. Anna’s balance of clean technique and strong presentation outweighed Alexandra’s technical risk, securing her the gold.

What does this mean for the 2026 Olympics?

The next Olympics will be shaped by whether Russian skaters, who routinely land quadruple jumps, are allowed to compete. Look out for names like Adeliia Petrosian, a technically powerful skater one of the few landing quad loops and rapidly rising in the Russian national ranks; and Sofia Akateva, known for clean quads and triple axels and dominant in junior and domestic competitions.

If the Russians are allowed to skate, and they skate cleanly; they are likely to overwhelm the current leader, Kaori Sakamoto. Kaori, who has won three consecutive gold medals in World Championships without quads, relies on consistency and elite presentation scores.

But even that outcome isn’t guaranteed. As history shows, the Olympics are rarely just about the best skater.

My Conclusion: Figure Skating is a Subjective Sport (No Surprise)

This isn’t new to fans, and current or past practitioners. I just wasn’t ready to admit it until I went through this analysis. This is the most subjective sport compared to other sports like gymnastics or equestrian.

After studying over four decades of Olympic and World Championship results, it’s clear that being a World Champion doesn’t guarantee Olympic gold. While the introduction of the IJS aimed to standardize judging, scores still reflect subjectivity, especially in PCS.

Despite cleaner skates or technical advantages, wins often favor the narrative, national backing, or perceived “star quality.” The data shows no consistent formula: artistry can outweigh quads, and favorites can fall short. In this sport, talent matters, but timing, momentum, and politics may matter more.

Stay Tuned

I’ll be writing a follow up on this soon, on two topics, one on the outcomes in 2026 and a breakdown cost of Olympic training, specifically want to do a deeper analysis if the cost for sports like figure skating is worth it.

What are your thoughts?

Hazel Marie Bala

How Gold Gets Decided in Women’s Figure Skating

Why is It So Hard to Win Olympic Gold in Women’s Figure Skating?

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